Lars’ PL Preview: Mid-table madness

Unless something very strange happens these guys are neither getting relegated nor qualifying for the CL. But there are some pretty fun teams here all the same.

By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson

After I unceremoniously, and perhaps a little harshly, dumped Fulham into the relegation battle segment of this preview, the mid-table segment is looking a little bit light on teams. It certainly feels like the number of teams who are both almost certainly safe from relegation but also very unlikely to challenge for a CL spot has gotten smaller. In fact, fans of one of these clubs will probably argue that they should be in the next segment, and not entirely without justification. But we’ll get to that. And if we learned anything from Southampton and Leicester City going down last season, it should be that for a lot of clubs just being safe and solid in this division is fine and not to be taken for granted.

Read Lars’ analysis of the relegation battle here.

Read Lars’ top team prediction here.

12^th place: Brentford

Odds on making the top 6: 10.00
Odds on making the top 4: 40.00
Odds on being relegated: 10.00

Reasons for optimism:

Lastly I wrongly predicted that Brentford would fall foul of the dreaded second season syndrome. Instead they continued to be a remarkably impressive outfit, given their resources. They also haven’t really changed all that much of the team that got promoted, with Thomas Frank largely keeping faith in the core group of players that got them promoted. This summer they’ve added the speedy and versatile Kevin Schade, as well as Nathan Collins at the back. By now Brentford have such a strong recent track record of getting things right that you almost blindly trust them to keep doing well.

Reasons for concern:

Ivan Toney’s ban. The striker won’t be playing again until January 16^th, and won’t even be training with the team again until September. But Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa and the new man Schade should be able to get a reasonable number of goals between them. But Brentford will miss Toney’s strength and skill as a target man.

Verdict:

Missing Toney for about half the season will probably have an adverse effect, but in their first two seasons in the league Brentford have put in so many impressive performances that I’d be baffled to see them stumble into relegation trouble.

11^th place: Crystal Palace

Odds on making the top 6: 17.00
Odds on making the top 4: 50.00
Odds on being relegated: 7.00

Reasons for optimism: Were really rather good after Roy Hodgson took over and it all clicked into gear. The caveat for that period was that they played a lot of teams further down the table, but they had gone through a spell of just one win in 14 league games before Hodgson took over. The Hodgson effect was undeniable. It was rather more surprising that it was the 75-year old Roy Hodgson who managed to unleash the exciting talents of Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, but there we go. The two were excellent in the closing weeks of the season and will, hopefully for Palace, pick up the creative mantle now that Wilfried Zaha has finally moved on. Some of the old Hodgson defensive organisation magic at the back, Eze and Olise running wild down the other end, Palace should be perfectly fine.

Reasons for concern:

Up front Palace have a trio of strikers in Odsonne Edouard, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Jordan Ayew who are all reasonable PL players, though neither of the three have ever truly convinced. Zaha’s departure does leave a void, even if Eze and Olise showed towards the end of last season that they’re ready to be the creative leaders of this team. However, they are both the subject of transfer interest from bigger clubs, and if they were to leave and not be adequately replaced then Palace would look short on creativity. While Hodgson deserves credit for reigniting the team last season, there is a certain staleness to the whole situation. One suspects that Palace, while obviously grateful to Hodgson for what he’s done for the club, still wish they knew how to quit him.

Verdict:

They spent most of last season in 12^th,, and I’d expect similar things this season.

10^th place: West Ham

Odds on making the top 6: 7.00
Odds on making the top 4: 25.00
Odds on being relegated: 15.00

Reasons for optimism:

Last season was a strange one for West Ham. David Moyes tried to evolve the way the team played, which didn’t seem to work at all and landed the club in the relegation mire. They were 19^th in the table as late as the 19^th of February. But they got it together, their form improved, and they ended up 14^th in the end. Expected goals suggests they were unlucky to be that far down as well, with West Ham actually having the 11^th best xG difference in the league. And parallel to all of this, they also won their first trophy in 43 years. The hope for West Ham is that this season will be “back to normal” under Moyes, that they’ll be closer to the team that finished 6^th and 7^th the two seasons before last. After all, they still have a lot of the same players that served them well during those seasons.

Reasons for concern:

There is one player from those seasons they don’t have any more, and he was a pretty important one. Declan Rice leaves a big gap in West Ham’s midfield, and it remains to be seen how they go about trying to replace him. Moyes is reportedly having some disagreements with the new recruitment guru Tim Steidten. You do wonder if they have enough goals in them, with Michail Antonio perhaps starting to show his age last season. With Gianluca Scamacca having been sold to Atalanta, one would expect additions to be made to the squad here. There is also the question of Moyes himself. The PL campaign last season suggested he may have taken West Ham as far as he can and that a parting of the ways was on the cards, but then they went and won the ECL. From the outside it would appear that he is going into the next season with an uncertain mandate, which is never a great sign.

Verdict:

There are enough good footballers in this squad that West Ham shouldn’t be worrying about relegation, and money from the sales of Rice and Scamacca have yet to be spent. With some new arrivals they should be fine, but they’re unlikely to be upwardly mobile.

9^th place: Brighton

Odds on making the top 6: 2.65
Odds on making the top 4: 6.50
Odds on being relegated: 35.00

Reasons for optimism:

So many reasons! Brighton were fantastic last season, particularly after Roberto de Zerbi took over. In fact, the team ended up with the fourth best xG goal difference in the league! And they achieved this whilst playing entertaining, bold, proactive football. For neutrals they were one of the most fun teams to watch last season, and in typical Brighton fashion we saw some previously unknown players impress. They’ve made some interesting additions in the summer transfer window, as they always do, and fans have every reason to be excited about the future.

Reasons for concern:

So why not higher in these here predictions? Well now. There are few factors here. Firstly, as much as De Zerbi’s Brighton were a lot of fun and put up some tremendous xG numbers, in terms of actual points and actual goals they were actually just 8^th in the league for the 32 games Roberto De Zerbi was in charge of. During this time they conceded more goals (48) than Leicester City (46). To get Brighton playing the way they did was a brilliant piece of coaching and De Zerbi’s team was a gift to neutrals who just want to watch good football, but still. And now they face the additional challenge of playing in the EL, which means the team goes on the infamous Thursday-Sunday playing schedule which everyone seems to hate. Levi Colwill is no longer there, Alexis Mac Allister is no longer there, and Moises Caicedo could still leave. As brilliant as Brighton’s recruitment is, these are not easy players to replace. Then there is the subject of De Zerbi himself, who could end up being tempted away from East Sussex if the right job came up.

Verdict:

This is another case of a prediction where I’d be delighted to be proven wrong, but I do suspect this is going to be a slightly more difficult season for Brighton. Still, Brighton have made a habit of making naysayers look daft, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if I was forced to join their ranks.

8^th place: Aston Villa

Odds on making the top 6: 3.75
Odds on making the top 4: 9.00
Odds on being relegated: 35.00

Reasons for optimism:

Lots of them. Collected the 5^th most points in the Premier League after Unai Emery took over, and there are signs that Villa could be the perfect fit for the Spanish tactician. They have enough resources to provide him with some good players to work with, but he avoids the worst of the rampant egos, punishing media glare, pressure and impatience that come with the very biggest jobs in football. Not that there can’t be pressure and impatience at Villa Park, but compared to the likes of PSG and Arsenal, Unai Emery probably has more space at Villa to just get on with his job. After taking over last season he did what you expect Unai Emery to do, in terms of making the team better organised and more difficult to beat. Pau Torres, Youri Tielemans and Moussa Diaby all seem like fine additions to the squad, and it should be a bonus for Emery to have had a full preseason with the team. With all this positivity around, Villa fans are entitled to feel a bit miffed that I’ve included them in the mid-table bit of the preview.

Reasons for concern:

So why did I? Well, there’s this: You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other campers. So the question for Villa isn’t “are they good?” or “are they better than before?”. I’d say the answer to those questions are both “yes”. But the more interesting question is “are they good enough to finish above enough of the other top teams to get a Champions League spot?”. Which presumably is the aim, especially since Villa have spent quite a bit of money in recent seasons (since the summer of 2019 only five clubs on the entire planet have a higher net spend on transfers than Aston Villa, according to Transfermarkt). If we look at what we have used to call the “top 6” plus Newcastle, does this Villa team actually look stronger than any of them? And as good as results were after Emery took over, their xG numbers weren’t quite as strong – particularly in attack – which isn’t a great sign.

Verdict:

I think Villa are better than before, and I think they’ll be difficult to play against. I think they’ll claim some nice scalps along the way, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they went far or even won a cup. In the PL, I think it’s more a question of how many of the teams “above” them end up having bad seasons. And this could happen. Tottenham could struggle, especially if Kane leaves. Newcastle could feel some growing pains. It could take Pochettino some time to figure out the Chelsea squad. And if a few of these teams do stumble I’d expect Villa to be the best candidate to exploit that. But I don’t think they’re actually better than those seven teams so I’ve stuck them in 8^th place.

Odds might have changed since publication.

Last Update: 09.08.203