Lars’ PL Preview: The Sharp End

Manchester City are huge favourites to win their sixth title in seven seasons, but behind the serial champions the picture is much less clear.

By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson

Arsenal did remarkably well to keep pace with Manchester City for as long as they did last season, but Pep Guardiola’s team proved to be a cut above yet again. It’s hard to make a strong case for any other outcome this time as well, but the good news for fans of intrigue and excitement is that there should be plenty of both in the battle to secure CL spots. With the new CL format starting next season, it’s very likely that the top five teams in the PL will go to the promised land of European football, not just the top four. This should add some extra spice to proceedings.

Read Lars’ analysis of the relegation battle here.

Read Lars’ mid-table prediction here.

7^th place: Tottenham

Odds on making the top 4: 4.25
Odds on making the top 2: 12.00
Odds on winning the league: 40.00

Reasons for optimism:

Because the Tottenham team devolved into a joyless, turgid mess last season, it’s easy to forget that it still contains some very good players. Or at least players who have played much better football in the past, either at Tottenham or somewhere else. The hope for Tottenham fans, and it’s not an unreasonable hope at all, is that under the more positive management of Ange Postecoglou, some of these players could blossom again. At least they now have a manager who actually wants to be there, which is not a bad start. With James Maddison added and Giovani Lo Celso back from the cold, Spurs might actually have some semblance of creativity in midfield – which after the Mourinho and Conte years will be an unfamiliar, strange and confusing thing to see for the fans.

Reasons for concern:

Well, there are quite a few. The Harry Kane situation remains unresolved, so the club is either going to lose the best player in their modern era or they’re going to go into the season with their best player having one foot out of the door. Neither scenario is ideal. Spurs were really quite awful in the second half of last season, and while a number of players could improve under a more committed manager this might also not happen. It’s unclear if Tottenham have a reliable defensive constellation available to them. Behind them new goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario is rather untested at this level. As, for that matter, is manager Postecoglou, though the Australian has come across well so far. The season seems to be something of a restart and a course change for Spurs, and possibly a new start without Harry Kane. As such it’s not unreasonable to expect some mixed results, which begs the question of how much patience Postecoglou will be awarded by the fans, the media, the players and ultimately the club itself.

Verdict:

It would be a surprise to see Spurs claim a CL spot in this first season under Postecoglou, especially with all the uncertainty around Harry Kane. Still, for some fans seeing a Spurs team that actually wants to play football led by a manager that actually wants to be there will be improvement enough.

6^th place: Newcastle

Odds on making the top 4: 2.50
Odds on making the top 2: 7.00
Odds on winning the league: 15.00

Reasons for optimism:

Newcastle are ahead of schedule in terms of using their newfound wealth to rise to the top. Eddie Howe and his team did superbly well to finish 4^th last season, and they were good value for it. In fact, if you look at their xG goal difference, they ended up with the second best underlying numbers in the league – even better than Arsenal in the end. This was particularly driven by them having the second lowest xG conceded in the league, whereas their attack was also roughly on par with Arsenal, Liverpool and Brighton. As you would expect from a Petrostate club they have added to their squad over the summer, but FFP regulations have kept them from being able to unleash the full economic potential of their new owners. Still, they’ve added to the squad they had last season, and the squad they had last season did very, very well.

Reasons for concern:

There are a few questions, chief amongst them how Newcastle will handle the added workload of playing in the CL. It’s the first time Eddie Howe has managed a team in Europe, which means he will have a lot less time on the training ground than he’s used to. Harvey Barnes and Sandro Tonali are perfectly fine players, though it’s less clear that they’re worth around 100 million pounds between them. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the proposed crackdown on time-wasting has on Newcastle, as this was a favoured tactic of Howe’s last season. It would be a surprise to see Callum Wilson put in another 18 goal season, though on the other hand it would not be surprising to see Alexander Isak add to his tally.

Verdict:

I suspect that last season was Eddie Howe getting the absolute maximum out of this squad, and with the added workload of CL and expected improvements in the teams around them I suspect they’ll drop back a place or two.

5^th place: Chelsea

Odds on making the top 4: 2.25
Odds on making the top 2: 6.00
Odds on winning the league: 13.00

Reasons for optimism:

Because results were so poor, the season so chaotic overall, it’s easy to overlook and forget that Chelsea did actually bring in some very, very exciting players last year. They may have overpaid for some of them, they may not have had a clue as to how they were meant to fit together, but the club did bring in some of the most highly rated young players on the market. Now they’ve spent the summer trimming down the squad, and they’ve brought in a manager who has a well-earned reputation for getting big performances out of young players. The two clubs are in wildly different situations, but there are still some comparisons to be drawn to the team Arsenal had last summer. If a handful of these young Chelsea players step up this season, the team could be flying.

Reasons for concern:

Mauricio Pochettino is a good manager, but he’s not a miracle worker. He has taken over a team that was a total mess, that looked bereft of any kind of team spirit and cohesion, and he has to try to get it working. Fast. The Lukaku situation remains unresolved, and remarkably after all these signings Chelsea still lack an obvious number 9 up front (though Nicolas Jackson has shown some promise in preseason). News that Christopher Nkunku needs an operation is a serious blow. And then there is the Todd Boehly of it all. The confident American fired Thomas Tuchel for slightly strange reasons, and lost patience in Graham Potter fairly quickly. If it takes Pochettino a little while to get the team into shape, will the firing finger get twitchy again?

Verdict:

Putting Chelsea ahead of a much more settled Newcastle United team is a bit of a risk on my part, particularly when bearing in mind how truly awful they were last season. But the talent is there, and after a stint as ringleader of the Parisian circus one imagines that Pochettino is delighted to be back doing what he does best. If the owners can keep out of their own way, this season should be the start of Chelsea’s recovery.

4^th place: Man Utd

Odds on making the top 4: 1.73
Odds on making the top 2: 3.25
Odds on winning the league: 12.00

Reasons for optimism:

Erik ten Hag did brilliantly well to manoeuvre through some treacherous waters in his first season and guide Manchester United to third place in the league. I like the moves they’ve made in the transfer market this summer. Replacing David de Gea with André Onana should enable Manchester United to start building from the back. Mason Mount may be unfashionable in some quarters, but he offers a lot both with and without the ball. Rasmus Højlund may be a bit of a gamble at that transfer fee, but he has a lot of the raw materials required to become a top striker. Having survived a difficult first season at the club, conditions are now much more favourable for Erik Ten Hag to start turning Manchester United into the team he wants them to be.

Reasons for concern:

With no other out-and-out strikers available the club really has gone all out on Højlund. That’s a gamble that could pay off, but there is certainly an element of risk there. While United finished third last season their underlying numbers were a little bit more iffy. According to the Fbref website, United’s xG goal difference was only the sixth best in the league, and with one or two rivals expected to do better this season United will have to do quite a bit better just to replicate last season’s league finish. Who completes the United attack next to Rashford, Højlund and Bruno Fernandes is uncertain, with expensive recruits Antony and Jadon Sancho both having put in uneven performances for United so far – to put it politely. Perhaps the answer could be the young fan-favourite Alejandro Garnacho. Either way, when compared to the attacking options rivals like Manchester City and Liverpool can field, it’s hard not to feel that United are still lagging behind a little bit. Fullback options are fine, but not an awful lot more than that. United’s recourse and heritage dictate that they should aspire to compete with Manchester City for the league title, and there still looks to be a considerable gap to bridge there. Uncertainty on the ownership side of things is probably not an advantage.

Verdict:

Erik ten Hag’s first season was about proving his pedigree, managing difficult situations and making what improvements he could on the pitch under the circumstances. He did all of those things very well. Now, with some canny additions to the team, you’d expect United to start work on bridging the gap to City.

3^rd place: Liverpool

Odds on making the top 4: 1.50
Odds on making the top 2: 3.25
Odds on winning the league: 9.00

Reasons for optimism:

Liverpool’s attack looks pretty terrifying on paper, and for all that went wrong last season they remained a hugely potent attacking unit. They both scored the third most goals and produced the third highest xG in the league, suggesting that main reasons for Liverpool’s struggles were to be found in the defensive phase of things. Liverpool are pushing ahead with an overdue reconstruction of their midfield, with Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister both being exciting arrivals. Expect them to add more to this area of the pitch following the departures of both Jordan Henderson and Fabinho. Towards the end of last season it looked like Liverpool may have found some kind of solution to the issue of how to get the best out of Trent Alexander-Arnold. Jürgen Klopp is still around, and with the success he’s brought to Liverpool before there are few managers you’d trust more to rebuild this team.

Reasons for concern:

Liverpool were not good defensively last season, and while results improved significantly in the spring it is a bit of a surprise to note that Liverpool haven’t invested more heavily in defensive additions to the squad. The departures of Henderson and Fabinho leaves a big gap in central midfield, though you would expect this to be filled before the end of the transfer window. If the plan now is to use Alexander-Arnold in a hybrid midfield role, similar to that of John Stones at Manchester City, you have to wonder where that leaves Andy Robertson and if Liverpool could do with another ball playing central defender. With the team reverting to a back four out of possession, it also doesn’t seem to quite solve the issue of Alexander-Arnold’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Verdict:

The attack looks pretty scary, but defensive uncertainties make it hard to back Liverpool to push City all the way. Should be a fun team to watch, though.

2^nd place: Arsenal

Odds on making the top 4: 1.50
Odds on making the top 2: 3.00
Odds on winning the league: 6.00

Reasons for optimism:

The club wisely decided to build on last season’s success and go hard in the transfer market. Declan Rice was expensive, but should be a clear upgrade in midfield. Kai Havertz was never able to fulfill his potential at Chelsea, but there was a lot of chaos at the club during his time there. It’s worth remembering that before going to Chelsea he was one of the most sought-after young players on the planet. Arsenal’s improbable title challenge last season was all the more remarkable for the fact that it was driven by one of the youngest squads in the league, and with all of those youngsters having gotten a year older there is no reason to think they’re any less good this time around. The only significant departure, Granit Xhaka, should be easily compensated for by the arrivals – whether it’s Rice or Havertz who takes his role.

Reasons for concern:

Not many, really, aside from the general existence of Manchester City. In any other PL era this team would have enough to win the league, but Manchester City have set the bar so high it’s almost impossible for other teams to compete. There is something else: Last season was very much a season of two halves for Arsenal. Before the international break in November/December they were near flawless. They were top of the league and had the lowest xG conceded in the division. But after the international break, the performances started dipping, especially in defence, even before their title charge derailed in April. According to the Understat website, Arsenal produced the 6^th highest xG and conceded the 9^th highest xG against in the league after the international break. That’s not great. Now, the most tempting explanation is that this was physical wear and tear, as well as the pressure of trying to compete with City, taking it’s toll on a very young squad. William Saliba’s injury obviously didn’t help either. But perhaps we are a bit hasty in assuming that the 14 games played before the break was the “real” Arsenal and that this is the state the team will now return to. Arsenal were rightly praised for their heroic efforts to keep up with Manchester City last season, but perhaps it’s gotten lost under that narrative that they were really not very good at all in the second half of the season. At least that’s what the numbers suggest.

Verdict:

All that being said, Arsenal did incredibly well to finish second with a young squad last season. They’ve added to that squad, with players that should make the team stronger. Arteta has proven that he is a very capable manager with a big future. They lack a proven goalscorer up front, but have so many potential goalscorers in the rest of the team that it shouldn’t matter. It’s hard to see an obvious weakness in the team and if Manchester City didn’t exist I think they’d win the league.

1^st place: Man City

Odds on making the top 4: 1.05
Odds on making the top 2: 1.20
Odds on winning the league: 1.75

Reasons for optimism:

Where do you start? Five titles in six seasons is quite some record, not to mention finally winning the CL last season. Whatever objections one might have to Manchester City’s ownership, on the pitch they are quite remarkable. They actually ended up with four points fewer last season than the season before, though one suspects the team wouldn’t have dropped four points in the last two games against Brighton and Brentford if the league wasn’t already won. Guardiola’s tactical shift of using John Stones as a hybrid defender/midfielder seemed to make it all fall into place for City, and it seemed to solve the issue of them no longer having an extra midfielder instead of a proper striker. And that proper striker that they have, well, he’s really rather good. Josko Gvardiol should be a fine addition to their defence.

Reasons for concern:

Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez are not insignificant departures. Gundogan is a very fine midfielder and Mahrez was a very useful squad player for Guardiola. Kevin De Bruyne is now 32 and the club will likely have to manage his minutes a bit. But really, the biggest potential negative hanging over Manchester City is one that’s very hard to factor into any kind of assessment, because we simply don’t know what will happen: The 115 charges from the PL the club are facing. If found guilty Manchester City could face punishments ranging from fines, points deductions and even, theoretically, expulsion from the league – though the latter seems improbable to say the least. It could end up being the biggest scandal in PL history, but the case could also end up being dismissed, or result in a negligible fine – which in the case of City is any kind of fine. The charges being brought appeared to galvanize the team last season, but it’s still not an ideal thing to have hanging over the club.

Verdict:

The odds compilers have made City just 1.75 to win the league, way ahead of Arsenal (6.00) and Liverpool (9), and it’s hard to argue too much. They’ve lost two considerable contributors, this is an immensely talented squad and it would take a brave man to bet against Pep Guardiola finding another PL winning team among the group he has at his disposal.

Odds might have changed since publication.

Last Update: 09.08.203