Betting Tips: Boosted Treble from Lars Sivertsen
13 min
The title race has gone down to the last game of the season, though aside from that there is somewhat less excitement than we were hoping for. That just means we’re going to have to make our own fun, and after a solid season here on the blog I’m hoping we can eek out another couple of winners from this last batch of games. Here’s a new boosted treble and three single bets!
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
Boosted treble of the week
Luton – Fulham
We start out at ground we’ve been to a number of times this season, but we sadly won’t be going to in the next one. Luton are heading back down to the Championship after a spirited attempt to stay in the league. They’re likely the biggest underdog we’ve had in the PL, in terms of their resources relative to those of the rest of the league. And with this in mind it is entirely to their credit that they’ve been the least bad of the three newly promoted teams – even if Burnley have made a late push for that honour. And really, as much as we all admire Luton and the way they’ve approached this season, it’s hard to defend their results in the last few months. In their last 15 games they’ve lost 11, drawn three and won just once. That kind of form does not keep you in the league.
The numbers tell a pretty straightforward story about where it’s gone wrong for Luton: According to Fbref.com, whose numbers are provided by Opta, Luton have conceded the highest xG number in the league after 37 games – though they have created more than Burnley and Sheffield United. Which matched up with our impression from watching them this season: They’ve created enough going forward to give themselves a shot at staying up, but they’ve just not been good enough defensively. This has made them a pretty solid “both teams to score” team for us here on the blog, so we’re going to miss them in that regard. “Both teams to score” has landed in 16 out of the last 17 Luton games, and in 15 out of 18 home league games across the season. Luton, on behalf of BTTS bettors everywhere, we salute you.
And we’re going to hit it one last time. Luton have drawn a blank just once on home soil this season, and that was a 1-0 defeat to Spurs in which they were very unlucky not to find the net. They may be going down, but as we saw last weekend, their fans have stayed behind them all the way and seem more appreciative and proud than despondent. As such, I’m expecting this to be a 90 minute celebration of the mere fact that Luton have had a season in the PL at all. I think Kenilworth Road will be a loud and positive place here and I think the team will want to repay the support with a performance on the field – whether they’re getting relegated or not. But, as always with Luton, wouldn’t trust them to keep a clean sheet against anyone really, so I think this very competent Fulham team will get on the scoresheet. We are, yet again and for the last time in a while, adding “both teams to score” from this week’s Luton game to our weekly treble.
Burnley – Nottingham Forest
Next up, there is the relegation decider that never was. This looked all set to be the most dramatic of the last weekend fixtures, but in the end we go into this with Burnley already being down. Nottingham Forest are, technically, not safe – just as Luton are technically not relegated. But Forest would need to lose here, Luton would need to win, and Luton would have to somehow make up 12 goals on the goal difference. Can Burney win 6-0 here and Luton beat Fulham 6-0? I mean, it seems improbable.
I don’t think Forest will lose by big numbers here, in fact I quite like them to win this. They’ve won just three in their last 17 in the league, which obviously looks ugly, but there have been some very reasonable performances during this run. Their xG numbers have improved under Nuno, and I quite like their attack. They actually played really well against Manchester City a couple of weeks ago, followed that with a 3-1 win over Sheffield United before they again put in a good performance overall against Chelsea. They have defensive issues, for sure, and I wouldn’t trust their goalkeeper to save a Word document, but I really like the look of their attack. Morgan Gibbs-White is a lovely player, Callum Hudson-Odoi has had a mini-renaissance, and Chris Wood has been reasonably productive up front. And while Forest have significant issues at the back, they are up against the second worst attack in the league here in Burnley.
Vincent Kompany has stayed true to his principles this season but there have been times when that appears to have cost Burnley more than it has helped them. The team has a real self-destructive streak, they make a lot of errors at the back and they don’t defend counter-attacks particularly well. Like Luton they will want to show their fans something in their last game before relegation, but I think an improving Nottingham Forest team have the tools to hurt Burnley here.
If they can improve at the back then I think Forest could punch upwards a bit next season, but for now I’ll settle for backing them to beat Burnley on the last day of the season. We’re taking a straight Nottingham Forest win for our last boosted treble of the season.
Arsenal – Everton
Lastly we’re going to head to the Emirates, where Arsenal take on Everton. In what has been a big season for backing overs and goals to be scored, I’m going to finish it off by going in a different direction here. Arsenal have the best defence in the league, and the most impressive thing for me with their title charge has been how composed they’ve stayed. This team has had a real emotional streak in the past, but they’ve shown much more maturity these last few months.
They’re unlikely to win the league in the end, but they’re on track to end the season with just 1 point less than The Invincibles racked up in the 2003-04 season – so this is some season Mikel Arteta and his team has put together.
Here, for their last game, Arsenal face an Everton team that has had a quietly impressive season. I say quietly because there has been so much talk of Everton’s trouble off the pitch that they really haven’t gotten enough credit for their performances on it, in my opinion.
Without the eight points deduction, Everton would be on 48 points now – the same as Brighton and Bournemouth in 10th and 11th place. And that’s with a squad that nearly went down last season and wasn’t improved all that much in the summer, on account of Everton being mostly broke. Sean Dyche has done an absolutely remarkable job here.
And Everton come into this game on good form as well: They’ve won five out of their last seven games, and they’ve only conceded once in their last five. They are exactly what you expect from a Sean Dyche team:
Rugged and uncomplicated. They rely heavily on set pieces to create chances and have suffered from inconsistent finishing this season, but they’re an unpleasant team to play against.
I think Arsenal will find a way, as they usually do, but I don’t think we’ll see a lot of goals here. Yes, Everton did have that mad 6-0 defeat to Chelsea fairly recently. But that was very much an outlier in terms of their recent form. They haven’t been conceding a lot of goals, and having some serious limitations up front they haven’t been scoring all that many either. I like “under 3.5 goals” here. The aforementioned 6-0 against Chelsea is the only Everton game in the last 10 that’s gone over 3.5. And as impressive as Arsenal have been this season, they’ve only occasionally run up big scores. They had a spell of rampant goalscoring early in 2024, but after that it’s been much more about controlling games and getting the job done with a minimum of fuss. I think they’ll do the same here. Everton are safe and Arsenal need a win to keep the pressure on Manchester City for 90 more minutes, but even though there is a difference in motivation levels here I don’t think Everton will fold. It’s hard to imagine Dyche letting his team roll over against Arsenal, as he seems to really enjoy frustrating bigger teams. I think Everton can keep this tight, so I am adding “under 3.5” to our weekly treble.
Normally this treble would get you a price of 6.17, but Betsson have boosted it to 6.80 – which is definitely worth a punt this weekend.
Selected singles
Arsenal – Everton
We’re going to stay at the Emirates because I’m confident enough in my read on this game that I want a single here as well. And we’re going to pick out an Arsenal win + under 3.5 goals in the game at a price of 2.31. I like the under for all the reasons mentioned above, but I do trust Arsenal to get the three points in the end. Six out of Arsenal’s last eight wins in the PL have been games that also went under 3.5 goals, and I think we’ll have another one of these here.
I’d like to mention a fun little side bet in this game, which is for a headed goal being scored in the game. Betsson have priced that at 2.19, which I like. Arsenal and Everton are the two teams who have scored the most goals from set pieces this season (20 for Arsenal, 18 for Everton). Arsenal have also scored the most headed goals in the league this season (17). So I’m expecting a tight game that could easily be decided by set pieces, and I think backing any kind of headed goal to be scored at 2.19 would be a fun little side bet for the last round of the season.
Chelsea – Bournemouth
For the last two single picks of this PL season we are going to play the hits here. We are backing teams to win and both teams to score, which we’ve had quite a lot of joy with this season.
Firstly we’re going to start at Stamford Bridge, where an improving Chelsea team take on Bournemouth. It’s a shame for Chelsea that the season is ending, really, because their results have finally started catching up with their underlying numbers. I’ve been harping on about how Chelsea’s numbers are actually kinda good all season, and now we’re starting to see them get results to match. Their two biggest problems all season have been finishing and goalkeeping, and while I still fully don’t trust their forwards or their goalkeeper they have at least managed to get the job done in the last few weeks. Chelsea have been particularly good at Stamford Bridge of late, with the blues winning seven out of their last eight games at home in all competitions. In fact, their record at home since November reads played 20, lost two, drawn three and won 15. That’s pretty good for a team that is supposedly having a disastrous season.
Bournemouth have lost their last two in the league, but I think it would be harsh to accuse them of being on the beach. One of those defeats was against Arsenal, and the other game in a pretty even game against Brentford. Bournemouth are finishing their season solidly mid-table, which is very impressive given how close they got to relegation last season and how badly this one started. They’re also quite fun to watch, an pretty reliable goalscorers: Bournemouth have scored in 15 out of their last 17 league games, and the two exceptions were against Manchester City and Arsenal. Chelsea, as much as they’ve improved, have not been keeping a lot of clean sheets. In their last 21 games in all competitions Chelsea have kept just three clean sheets.
So, in essence: Chelsea are improving, and they’ve been good at home for a while anyway. But they don’t keep a lot of clean sheets, and they’re facing a team that has scored in almost all of their games these last few months? This is a classic home win + both teams to score territory for me, and I’m more than happy to pick up “Chelsea to win + both teams to score” at a price of 2.20 this weekend.
Liverpool – Wolves
And lastly, what better way to sign off for this PL season and say goodbye to Jürgen Klopp than to back the most Kloppian of results: Liverpool to win + both teams to score. Klopp has restored Liverpool to the English and European elite, and his time at the club has been nothing short of a triumph. And one of the things that’s been so positive about him, from a neutral perspective, is that at a time when a lot of elite managers want their teams to control games as much as possible, Klopp is willing to cede that control and accept some defensive risk in return for attacking intent. It has made his team not just successful, but also consistently fun to watch.
Liverpool to win + both teams to score has landed in 15 games this PL season, and in seven out of 11 home games against teams from the lower half of the table. It’s been a pretty successful bet for us this season, though we have had a few maddening near misses with it – like the absurd 2-2 draw with Manchester United. But mostly it’s worked out, and I think it can work out again here. Wolves are not the most prolific team in the league, to say the least, and they’re finishing the season pretty poorly. But they have had injury trouble this season, and for this game both Matheus Cunha and Hwang Hee-Chan should be available. They’ve scored in six of their last eight, and especially when Cunha is in the line-up they carry a significant threat on the counter. It would be nice to see Pedro Neto in the line-up, but he’s only expected to make the bench.
Still, I think Liverpool will want to put on a show in what will no doubt be a very emotional occasion at Anfield. I think we’ll see a Liverpool team try to go for it and score a lot of goals, against a Wolves team that has the tools to hit them on the counter. It should be a fun game, and given what a goal-tastic season this has been in the PL it feels entirely appropriate to be signing off by backing Liverpool to win + both teams to score.
Good luck!
PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.
Last Updated: 17.05.24
